Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 28.623003 30.691972 32.914253 35.492292 38.418163 41.656702 45.542094
2025-04-20 26.107779 29.013015 32.328461 36.444277 41.493133 47.591893 55.692654
2025-04-27 24.535260 27.929741 31.968459 37.232423 44.080352 52.951198 65.808727
2025-05-04 23.276437 26.988132 31.549385 37.730963 46.175561 57.802452 76.075039
2025-05-11 21.976613 25.834209 30.692419 37.479337 47.121873 61.091393 84.669078
2025-05-18 20.825562 24.755869 29.805998 37.042209 47.674674 63.789284 92.854879
2025-05-25 19.754622 23.695114 28.841603 36.372083 47.755735 65.699513 100.079636
2025-06-01 18.809552 22.735106 27.934286 35.681779 47.691922 67.311000 107.115048
2025-06-08 17.896687 21.764152 26.944082 34.777727 47.175648 68.046171 112.562229
2025-06-15 17.640823 21.663044 27.148059 35.645115 49.563750 74.228460 131.775843
2025-06-22 17.101482 21.139705 26.714489 35.495529 50.232896 77.342306 145.110735
2025-06-29 16.448826 20.427060 25.966616 34.795976 49.876169 78.390641 153.555219
2025-07-06 15.699848 19.570275 24.997776 33.733054 48.871262 78.169857 159.072873
2025-07-13 15.538052 19.538377 25.241064 34.632677 51.488013 86.043137 193.805484
2025-07-20 15.340352 19.441677 25.376041 35.357970 53.872645 94.028856 236.622544
2025-07-27 15.089854 19.253869 25.357210 35.815945 55.797532 101.471500 286.648255
2025-08-03 14.694926 18.835699 24.958360 35.584843 56.310539 105.509998 326.748313
2025-08-10 14.287455 18.382796 24.482565 35.183172 56.422984 108.529307 366.621722
2025-08-17 13.857492 17.881095 23.907517 34.566916 56.016002 110.028824 400.340432
2025-08-24 13.447993 17.396938 23.340787 33.931483 55.505304 111.143926 434.741020
2025-08-31 13.017796 16.868981 22.684785 33.098333 54.487496 110.557096 455.633480
2025-09-07 12.952785 16.891438 22.913205 33.897716 57.186928 122.291754 635.535387
2025-09-14 12.700432 16.618536 22.648714 33.759930 57.733557 127.256680 772.501312